Monday, September 14, 2015

Bern The Sanders Part 1

A response to 8 points posted on Bernie Sanders webpage. I believe the guy is well intentioned, just entirely ignorant.

    • Demanding that the wealthy and large corporations pay their fair share in taxes. As president, Sen. Sanders will stop corporations from shifting their profits and jobs overseas to avoid paying U.S. income taxes. He will create a progressive estate tax on the top 0.3 percent of Americans who inherit more than $3.5 million. He will also enact a tax on Wall Street speculators who caused millions of Americans to lose their jobs, homes, and life savings.

Okay yes, the wealthy and large corporations should pay their fair share in taxes but what exactly is that? Taxing the wealthy too much is not good because though you may not like that they have money, many of the top 1% employ people! You want to argue that Bill Gates (or Microsoft to keep the argument correct) should pay out the nose at a higher percentage rate than you? They employee 118,000 people. People are aware that GE usually pays little to no tax, and this is largely true and I can't necessarily argue that the tax loopholes are a good thing. They should pay a fair rate. But again, what is a fair rate? 

 
General Electric employs about 300,000 Americans (#10 in the top 10). They already compensate you and now you want them to pay for your government programs and other non-employees as well? If you tax these corporations too much, they will move operations elsewhere. It's called the free market and these companies have a duty to their employees and stockholders to be competitive which you are hurting with some of the highest corporate tax rates anywhere. You know why they're moving jobs to other countries? Because it is too expensive to be competitive in many ways here!

“Key Findings. The United States has the third highest general top marginal corporate income tax rate in the world at 39.1 percent, exceeded only by Chad and the United Arab Emirates. “ (Taxfoundation.org).

Keep pushing and see how many jobs stay in this country. Lower the tax rate, more jobs will come back. And sorry, if you do not have a skill that leads to a wage you consider fair, I guess you better come up with a skill that does. Ask the tech workers in India what they make an hour in USD. Those guys actually have a skill and I bet they live worse off than you.

As far as the estate tax goes, that is just robbery on all levels. I don't care if you inherit $500 from a distant cousin or $500,000 from your grandmother, the government has no right to any of that and neither do you (through the government).

I don't know enough about Wall street speculation to comment on that last part so I won't.

Do I agree with how the tax system is set up? No. In fact I don't think we should have an income tax and government should be much smaller but that is not in the scope here. What I really want to see is people logically tackling an issue, not simply calling for the stroke of a pen without understanding the consequences.

  • Increasing the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour by 2020. In the year 2015, no one who works 40 hours a week should be living in poverty.

I could (and others have, they're called econ textbooks!) write a book on how ignorant of economics you are if you think this statement is not lunacy. Your labor, as with any other product, carries a value that the market determines. Jobs that pay $7.25 have a high supply of labor in comparison to the demand. You are replaceable if your skills only qualify you for this kind of labor. All of you protesters will find out real quick what happens when you're wage doubles over night (and yes 5 years is an economic overnight for that kind of increase) and your skills do not. They will look for more talented people. And guess what else? They will find it too.

The average EMT, yes those life saving individuals with insane hours and lots of training in the preservation of life, makes $15 an hour. I'm sure quite a few of these driven individuals would stay with their careers because they are doing an important and fulfilling job. But some of the less motivated ones are going to take your job. Construction workers make about $17 an hour. I think I would rather work in an air conditioned gas station than out in the hot sun and as a construction worker I probably have some skills that would come in handy in maintenance around a fast food restaurant. (both from BLS.gov).

Quick snapshot of some common manufacturing jobs from Indeed.com based on actual job postings and reporting:
I bet all of these people would be willing to challenge you for your job running the cash register for $15.

Do you think you're sticking it to the man when you ask for $15/hr? In many cases “the man” is a small business owner. Yes, those guys that employ about half of the workforce. (See here [opens a pdf]). You think you're sticking it to McDonald's? 90% of their stores are franchises not corporate stores. (See here). Franchises often only get a few percent in profit margins. You're not taking money from the corporations, you're taking money from hard working franchise owners and their families. Their reaction will be to try and preserve their standard of living by finding more skilled employees (see above) who can perform multiple functions.

And what will this $15/hr minimum wage do to the cost of living? It will increase. The demand for products will go up, sure, and this sounds good but increased demand leads, ultimately, to higher prices, economics 101. Yes, it can be argued that the increased demand will lead to higher production and more jobs and that argument is somewhat valid though speculative. However, production will not ramp up instantly so prices will rise and supplies will dwindle until a new equilibrium is met at a higher cost. Production will ramp up and prices will then fall. Best case, they fall back to the previous level and you've only caused a short term economic crisis. More likely though, the prices will still be higher than before (source: economic basics and a Master's degree in business). Again you could argue that over the 5 years before the raise takes place, companies can proactively hire and train. They're not going to do that though because that is a net loss for them. They end up with a higher payroll than before and a supply that is too high for the current demand dropping prices and profit margins. All of this forces companies to do more with less (does that sound familiar? They're already doing that because of the last recession). This will increase, not decrease the income disparity between the poor and all other economic classes because they will favor workers with a higher level of skill. And these poor people will then work even harder. Bottom line: what once was worth $7.25 is now $15 without any increase in inherent value. That is the definition of inflation.

So US products now cost more across the board. Stores will bring in more imports, increasing demand for products outside of the US and shipping more prosperity from the US to other countries.

On a personal note, what does this do to me and others like me (Middle middle class? I'm not sure what I am)? I can pretty much guarantee that while my company is increasing labor costs on the bottom end, they're not going to give me a $7.75 raise to counter the above rising cost of living and inflation. So thank you for lowering my standard of living when you aren't actually helping your own.

The answer is not a pen stroke, but hard work. Please don't respond with “but I have kids!” I'll keep that in mind when I live in your world to demand a raise when I get married and have kids even though my value to the company has not increased. The fact is that although college costs have skyrocketed (I'll get to that later), community colleges offer decent programs at an affordable rate. In fact, I did some research for a friend and found that that BC3 in Butler county PA (North of Pittsburgh) is not only free if you make less than 30k a year, but you can also receive a small living expense allowance. Will you finish in 2 years while working too? Probably not but you will develop skills that you can market and raise your standard of living. And before you write off community colleges, many of them have relationships with local industry and other colleges. First of all this allows them to teach you skills that are in demand in your area. It also allows you to transfer credits to another university if you choose to go further.

  • Putting at least 13 million Americans to work by investing $1 trillion over five years rebuilding our crumbling roads, bridges, railways, airports, public transit systems, ports, dams, wastewater plants, and other infrastructure needs.

I can't point out any overwhelming flaw to this except where is that trillion dollars coming from? Higher taxes. The DOTs in this country are notoriously mismanaged and expensive compared to private industry where competition can lower costs. If you want to put people to work and improve infrastructure, do away with the DOTs and hand the work over to the private sector. Will there be hiccups? Yes, but ultimately this is a better and more efficient system to not only put people to work, but lower costs and thus taxes.

I will say I'd appreciate fewer potholes, but the government should not handle this project if you want to maximize benefits to the economy and the workers they want to employ with such a program. If you're curious: http://www.socialwelfarehistory.com/eras/great-depression/public-works-administration-2/

I will take a different tone here than the above sections but still point out the flaws I doubt politicians have considered in doing this right.



  • Reversing trade policies like NAFTA, CAFTA, and PNTR with China that have driven down wages and caused the loss of millions of jobs. If corporate America wants us to buy their products they need to manufacture those products in this country, not in China or other low-wage countries.

I will focus on “If corporate America wants us to buy their products they need to manufacture those products in this country, not in China or other low-wage countries.” This statement is completely counter to what the other economic policies will foster. You have increased the cost of production in the USA, now you want corporations to move more work here? Ok sure let's say that isn't an insane notion counter to every business plan. Let's say they do move all production back to the US with an even higher corporate tax rate (see above) and higher production cost. Great, now we have extremely expensive products that cannot compete with imports from other countries. Would you also like to shut down trade with all other countries so we have even less competition and the prices rise even higher?

I have a better idea to increase your wealth while driving down costs and increasing demands. Shrink the government and reduce taxes. You will keep more money and so will corporations which will give them incentive to come back to this country and set up shop here.


  • Creating 1 million jobs for disadvantaged young Americans by investing $5.5 billion in a youth jobs program. Today, the youth unemployment rate is off the charts. We have got to end this tragedy by making sure teenagers and young adults have the jobs they need to move up the economic ladder.

I cannot poke wholes in the good intentions of this statement. You're absolutely right, teenagers and young adults need to work and gain experience and skills but you can't just legislate that.

Do you see the spike that really starts to take hold around the last recession (~2008)? With lots of people out of work, they started to take the lower level jobs that are typically where the young find a foothold. Creating jobs just for the youth when the demand is not there is not the way to go. It will be a slow process, but the economy must be nurtured for these jobs to come back within reach of the very unskilled youth (see all of the above).

I could also get into discouraged workers and the “statistics” involved in the unemployment rate but I leave that up to the reader as it is off topic. http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2012/11/12/undercounting-very-discouraged-workers/


  • Fighting for pay equity by signing the Paycheck Fairness Act into law. It is an outrage that women earn just 78 cents for every dollar a man earns.

I have worked with VERY intelligent and skilled women who are compensated just fine. My family is full of strong women (engineers, computer scientists, biologists, journalists etc) and none of them have complained of discrimination in pay. I will point out sources of income disparity that are not based on discrimination.

Women are less likely to negotiate a higher wage and accept what is offered (www.NBER.org).

Men and women vary greatly in their career field choices (see here). The actual data suggests that there is very little difference when men and women are doing the same job with similar experience and education backing them up. This slight difference could be from the above point on negotiation.

The typical “75 cents to every dollar” chant is largely caused by differing career fields. By legislating absolute “income equality” will actually mean men will have to be paid less for the same work. For example, a female receptionist will have to make more than a male receptionist because this field pays less than Electrical engineering which is a typically male dominated field. If you want true income equality, encourage the dissolution of gender roles and encourage intelligent young women to explore other fields if they are so interested.


  • Making tuition free at public colleges and universities throughout America. Everyone in this country who studies hard should be able to go to college regardless of income.

Okay that is fine if you are willing to pay the taxes that will be required to fund such a thing. The bigger problem is way colleges and universities are run. Tuition is off the charts. Private colleges are cashing in on this trend while public schools are increasing their profit margins to compensate for the cuts in State funding. That may sound like approval for this plan but it isn't because I support lower taxes.

Working on making schools affordable without losing quality of education is not a simple matter. Much like the healthcare act (which is a discussion for another section), throwing a large amount of students on a system that isn't prepared to handle it will decrease the quality of education across the board.

Trimming fat is one positive step:

That is direct from the University of Pittsburgh website. That is roughly $1000 a month to share a studio apartment with a roommate IF we consider that to be a 12 month cost which it isn't, school is in session 9 months of the year unless students take summer classes. Local studio apartments (private) range from $500 - $1000 a month. With a roommate, that is $250 - $500 a month without an added cost if they stay for summer classes. That leaves a whopping $500-$750 a month for food, clothing, and bills if private housing is found. I would have killed for $500 a month for food etc. I wouldn't have lived for a week on bread and crackers my Freshman year. I don't spend that much on food and clothing now. Yes, the capacity is not there right now but the opportunity will provide more private housing and competition on prices.


Now we compare that to total tuition for various schools within the university and see that thousands a year can be shaved off with the above change.

A small step sure but it shows the problem with schools who post profit and even those that don't.

Or we can take the technology route. Many subjects don't change year to year and professors just repeat the same lecture for the same class year to year. These lectures are often posted online at more open minded universities. The only reason I would have trouble buying the textbook and studying myself is that it doesn't provide the piece of paper that says I learned what I need to learn. It can also be frustrating to find additional resources when something doesn't make sense. Combine the technology with the traditional universities and costs can be cut.

I don't have all of the answers but I'd bet there are lots of good ideas out there to add to these ideas and reduce costs further.


  • Expanding Social Security by lifting the cap on taxable income above $250,000. At a time when the senior poverty rate is going up, we have got to make sure that every American can retire with dignity and respect.

Again, I'm anti-tax in a lot of ways so this actually makes sense but could be made completely irrelevant if the Social Security system collapses. I do not trust the government to manage my money but I understand the need to feel secure with retirement. Frankly, taxing anything you choose to make after you start collecting social security at any other rate than normal is robbery. You paid into that system, that is your money. You shouldn't be penalized for using it as leisure money if you can continue to support yourself.
  • Guaranteeing healthcare as a right of citizenship by enacting a Medicare for all single-payer healthcare system. It’s time for the U.S. to join every major industrialized country on earth and provide universal healthcare to all.

For next time!
A rebuttal to the following article posted on the CARM website by Matt Slick found here: https://carm.org/homosexual-gay-sex-harms-no-one

I ask that this be read with an open mind and also to ignore where my tone gets somewhat snarky. This is meant to be, mostly, a presentation of information.


Mr. Slick was not kind of enough to link his writing to the Health24 article, but I found it: http://www.health24.com/Medical/Depression/News/Gays-more-prone-to-depression-20120721

And it stresses that the depression, alcoholism etc are likely tied to discrimination and ostracization. The study was done to help treat and prevent the problem, not to reveal some great inner turmoil homosexuals are experiencing because they're gay. The risk of suicide is obviously because of the higher rates of depression and probably why they don't live as long. Stress is a big contributing factor to heart disease, high blood pressure, etc.

And instead of trying to look further in a fact based and unbiased source, Mr. Slick references an article from “OneNewsNow.com which is the website of the American Family News Network (AFN), a national Christian news service.” http://onenewsnow.com/general/faq/ I'm not saying that their research is invalid in all accounts, but Slick is not helping his case by referencing another christian source.

Furthermore, the article he has linked does not exist:

But that's okay, I went ahead and did some research myself. The study he's referencing for life expectancy was written to bring awareness to the problems being faced, not as a means to create more homophobia. This study was conducted in the late 80s and early 90s. Since the study, the researchers have noticed marked improvement in the health issues surrounding this issue. HIV/AIDS was still VERY new when this study was conducted.


The article isn't very long but I thought this snip was worth including here anyway.

The global statistics are far more troubling than the homosexual statistics.
http://www.avert.org/worldwide-hiv-aids-statistics.htm

On to that GMLA reference. The abstract is short enough to just insert here:

Mr. Slick, just as OneNewsNow, is more interested in using the above to create some sort of homophobia. The reason these women are more statistically prone to develop breast cancer is, as stated above, from nulliparity (not having kids), higher rates of alcoholism (see depression part above), and being overweight. Lots of women choose not to have children. Two of my aunts do not have children and did not get breast cancer. The aunt that did have children is the one who got breast cancer. And as far as being overweight, we as a nation are overweight! Not just lesbians. How about we focus on a cancer cure and treatment and obesity instead of attributing this to homosexuality.


First of all, the sample size and variety was extremely limited in that Journal of Sex Research Article (Abstract here: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3813477?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents)
2,583 men living in the same place.


An online dating site may not be too accurate though, people lie on them all the time to make themselves more attractive to other members.


That one is just depressing since it says an associates in art is better for getting laid than an advanced degree or no degree. This explains a lot... erm ahem.

It does reference a book by Dr. Debbie Herbenick who says:
This is also why lesbian couples are actually less likely to have more sex.

This article does admit that homosexual couples are more promiscuous:
So nothing near what is suggested by the CARM research.

And my final point is... Who cares? As mentioned in the Oxford Journal (above), the bigger issue is the spread of disease and great leaps and bounds have been made in bringing awareness to this. It is nobody's business outside of those involved. Disease prevention and cure, not judgement.


Tell this to the 70s (ya baby). Sexual morals have changed continuously through history. If you want to teach sexual morals, the morals you believe in, to your children by all means do so. The source of those morals is you. Things have always existed that will challenge your morals, and your kids' morals, but you can't force them on others just like I can't force mine on you. Nothing anyone else does can force you to change your morals. If something does change your morals, it isn't that thing's fault, it is yours because obviously your convictions were not what you thought they were.

And no, I don't want you to hold your tongue either. You have every right to speak your mind so long as it never graduates to verbal abuse or physical violence (like what happened to that family who refused to cater a gay wedding and of course the Westboro baptist church and all of their crap). 

This correlation cannot be denied but as I have pointed out more than once, lets concentrate on eliminating the disease and promoting safe sex instead of somehow relating the disease to morals.


Look at this list of other STDs other groups are likely to get. The STD problem is not a gay problem, it is a people problem. Awareness and safe sex. Free clinics are, surprisingly, free. Gay or straight, the bigger issue is the disease, preventing it and curing it.

First of all see above for the study and response from the research group.
Secondly, Exodus Global Alliance is a sexual reorientation group, not an unbiased source.


If you read the abstract of Cameron and Cameron, you will see their sample size was 17 and their findings were based on 5 cases.

Here is a report from over 30 years of data by the American Academy of Pediatrics: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2013/03/18/peds.2013-0377.full.pdf+html

This article points out that single parents (gay or straight) cause the most emotional distress in their children.

The larger problem is the divorce rate among parents of any orientation. 
I usually don't care for wikipedia but this one has 20+ sources backing it up. The divorce rates are the same among married homosexuals as among heterosexuals. Of course the data is limited given the short time that gay marriage has been legal.


Already covered this.

Read this instead.

Yes, domestic violence is higher among same sex couples. As always, there is no excuse for domestic violence, just explanation. This article cites the internalized negativity surrounding the identification of being homosexual and the depression/stress discussed at the beginning of this. Authorities are working to make it easier for victims to report and as with the issue that began this work, only time will tell if the increasingly tolerant society will help. In fact, it may take a generation or more for the stigma of being gay to go away enough to redo the mental health and violence studies.


My research does back this up. However, this article points to the problems being caused by not having kids (already discussed above, not a solely lesbian issue). Furthermore, my research points to other factors that aren't inherently lesbian problems.


The other issues are largely associated with ignorance of STIs and the need for regular OB/GYN visits.

And here's something else to consider, though you may be a bit embarrassed to: 

New research suggests that men who don't “get off” enough are more prone to prostate cancer, but I'll bet you won't be preaching that! That would require either masturbation or lots of not for procreation sex.

Turns out a female orgasm has health benefits too! If you're so concerned with women's health, maybe that should be part of the sermon too.

Of course I don't expect these examples to be preached! My point is there are lots of things that can affect health and you're just pointing out another one that isn't inherently a gay problem. You expect lesbians to have heterosexual intercourse and get pregnant as a means to reduce health risks? Then I expect you to preach masturbation to do the same.

The only thing that is “obvious” Mr. Slick is that you, and your friends at Exodus Global Alliance, had an agenda and set out to prove it without considering all (or even most) of the facts. I'm not sure what your background is but 200+ post secondary credits and a lifetime of being a nerd have honed my research skills. How to tell good sources from bad ones or sniffing out bias is obviously not your strongest point.

Gay marriage and activity does not affect you Mr. Slick. It makes you uncomfortable I'm sure and I can respect that. Lots of things make me uncomfortable and I just avoid those things. No one is asking you to accept homosexuality as moral or normal. We're just asking you not to perpetuate an environment of hate and intolerance for something you do not understand or agree with. Just as I'm sure, you expect me not to interfere with your life and your beliefs.

The whole purpose of this article was for you to prove that homosexual activity isn't “harmless.” Heterosexual activity isn't harmless either but I don't see you writing about that too.

All of that being said, Mr. Slick has every right to speak his mind. He has every right to remain ignorant. He also has the right to be a Christian and preach that homosexuality is wrong.

As always I am open to discussion on any points. Evidence and sources I missed, new findings etc. I only ask for a logical and well backed up argument.